3v desk
paper deskexecution drydemo.trading212.comLondon 2026-09-03 03:08Book
No open positions.
Cash at last review: GBP 50,000. Last review 02 Sept, 21:45: NO_OPPORTUNITY.
Arm list, today
No pre-open decisions for today yet. The pre-open routine writes them at 07:45 London.
Cards for 2026-09-03
| Pair | Line | Direction | Conf. | Priced in | Settle | Move % | t0 | Plays | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| brent | 3BLR | up | medium | partly | 95.23 202611 | 0.5 to 3 | 08:00 | STS-E | A wire-confirmed ceasefire, talks announcement or Iranian statement reopening Hormuz transit before 09:30 London, or Nov Brent below 93.0 at 08:00 London, makes this card wrong |
| wti crude | 3LOI | up | medium | partly | 90.63 202610 | 0.5 to 3 | 08:00 | STS-E | A wire-confirmed ceasefire or Hormuz reopening before 09:30 London, or Oct WTI below 88.5 at 08:00 London, makes this card wrong |
| natural gas | 3LNG | up | low | partly | 2.999 202610 | 1 to 4 | 08:00 | STS-E | Oct gas below 2.90 at 08:00 London, or a cooler 6 to 10 day forecast revision on the morning run, makes this card wrong; the 15:30 storage print is a scheduled risk to any open intraday position |
| gold | 3SGO | down | low | partly | 4,434.3 202612 | 0.3 to 1.5 | 08:00 | STS-E | Dec gold above 4,480 at 09:30 London (recovering the 1 Sep gap), or the 10y yield below 4.70 percent, or a wire-confirmed Gulf ceasefire, makes the down case wrong; a further escalation that lifts gold on the haven bid would do the same |
| silver | 3SSI | down | low | partly | 65.93 202612 | 0.5 to 2.5 | 08:00 | STS-E | Dec silver above 67.3 (the 5-session average) at 09:30 London, or the gold card's invalidation, makes the down case wrong |
| sp500 | 3LUS | flat | low | partly | 7,669.25 202609 | 0.2 to 1 | 14:30 | none | The flat call is wrong if ES trades outside 7,600 to 7,740 at 14:30 London (a gap of about 0.9 percent either way) on a named catalyst |
| nasdaq100 | LQQ3 | flat | low | partly | 29,141 202609 | 0.3 to 1.5 | 14:30 | none | The flat call is wrong if NQ trades outside 28,800 to 29,500 at 14:30 London on the Broadcom reaction or on yields |
| ftse100 | 3UKL | flat | low | partly | 10,785.5 202609 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 08:00 | none | The flat call is wrong if the September future trades outside 10,700 to 10,870 at 08:00 London on a named catalyst |
Recent decisions
| When (London) | Lane | Strategy | Line | Decision | Rules | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Sept, 21:45 | W | portfolio | NO_OPPORTUNITY | positions 0 · cash 50000 · note No open positions after the 1 Sep reset; nothing to hold or close at the next open. First evening routine run; cards for 3 Sep written alongside. |
Pre-open log, last entry
docs/preopen-log.md not written yet.
Evening log, last entry
## 2026-09-02 (cards for 2026-09-03), manual test run at 22:45 London **Positions.** None. Practice account 31882881, GBP, cash free 50,000, total 50,000, blocked 0, open orders 0 (scripts/t212-smoke.ts read-only, 21:45 London). One lane W row written: strategy portfolio, NO_OPPORTUNITY, payload positions 0, cash 50000 (data/decisions/2026-09-02-W.json; decisions-write wrote 1 row). **Research inputs.** The Google Drive connector is present in this session, but a search for a folder named "Desk research" returned nothing, so no files were ingested. research/inbox is empty and research/index.json has no entries; nothing to curate, no thesis note written. **Cards.** 8 cards, one per gbp_tradeable pair (silver, gold, WTI, Brent, natural gas, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, FTSE 100; copper, coffee, sugar and wheat have no GBX line at the broker and get no card). Up 3, flat 3, down 2. Written to data/cards/2026-09-03.json; cards-write wrote 8 rows, produced_by aggregator. | Pair | Line | Direction | Confidence | Priced in | |---|---|---|---|---| | Brent | 3BLR | up | medium | partly | | WTI | 3LOI | up | medium | partly | | Natural gas | 3LNG | up | low | partly | | Gold | 3SGO | down | low | partly | | Silver | 3SSI | down | low | partly | | S&P 500 | 3LUS | flat | low | partly | | Nasdaq 100 | LQQ3 | flat | low | partly | | FTSE 100 | 3UKL | flat | low | partly | Arm list for the pre-open (up, medium or high, not priced in, tradeable): 3BLR and 3LOI, t0 08:00 London, opening range 30 minutes. They are one theme (Hormuz), not two independent bets; the pre-open should size them as one. STS-D is not a candidate on either: the move since the 1 Sep strikes is about 4.4 ATR20 (rule E4) and payrolls on 4 Sep is within 3 sessions. **Data sources.** The Interactive Brokers connector was available and used for every card: futures ladder, daily bars 9 Mar to 2 Sep and closing quotes for the front and second month (settles are Globex last trades from the daily bars, not exchange settlement prints; overnight move recorded as 0.0 because the cards were written before the 23:00 London Globex reopen). News from web search; the primary pages (CENTCOM, Broadcom IR, EIA, CNBC, Reuters-carrying sites) are blocked by the egress proxy, so the citations point at the primary URLs but the text was read through search snippets. Silver and gold use the December contract (the active delivery month) rather than the thin September serial; the card records this. **Shared dollar and rates view.** Dollar firm (DXY 99.7), US 10y 4.80 to 4.82 percent (highest since Nov 2023), 30y 5.29 percent, implied odds of a 16 Sep Fed hike about 70 percent after Warsh (28 Aug) and Barr (31 Aug). Applied to every card. **Lines for Davide.** - Oil is the only card with a clean channel: the US struck about 100 IRGC targets including tankers on 1 Sep, Iran hit US bases in four countries on 2 Sep, Hormuz transits are down about 95 percent, and Brent (95.23) and WTI (90.63) are at their 30-session highs in steep backwardation. Continuation, not fade, but partly priced after a 9 to 10 percent five-session move, so medium confidence and intraday only. - Precious metals have two opposing channels (Fed hike odds and yields down, haven bid up); marked down with low confidence, not armed. Indices flat: rates against AI earnings (Broadcom beat after the close, reaction unseen). Natural gas up on LNG feedgas and heat but low confidence into the 15:30 storage print. - Nothing is held, so nothing is at risk overnight. **Failures.** None in the routine steps. Side effect worth noting: t212-smoke.ts writes data/t212-instruments-wisdomtree-<date>.json on every read-only run, which is outside the files this routine may commit; the file was deleted before committing. npm install also created package-lock.json, left uncommitted. **Recommended changes to the prompt files.** 1. evening-routine.md section 1: say that the instruments dump written by t212-smoke.ts must be discarded or that the script should get a --no-instruments flag, otherwise every run leaves a file the rules forbid committing. 2. nightly-sector-agent.md rule 2: state that for metals the "front month" is the active delivery month (Dec for GC and SI in September), not the nearest serial. 3. nightly-sector-agent.md: the card is produced before the Globex reopen, so overnight_move_pct is always 0.0 at 21:15; either move that field to the pre-open routine or define it as the move from settle to the 21:15 quote. 4. evening-routine.md section 1b: name the Drive folder search query, and say what to log when the connector is present but the folder is not found (this run).